The Russian Army in 2024

Pavel Luzin on what the available data suggests about Russian army and military production

Russia’s Strategic Forces after the START Treaty: Missiles and Bombers

Pavel Luzin on why Russia's decision to suspend its participation in the New START Treaty masks its weaknesses

Russian strategic forces after the START Treaty: The problem of ‘zombie submarines’

Pavel Luzin discusses why suspended participation in the Treaty is a way to mask weaknesses

Russia’s Lonely Fleets

Pavel Luzin reflects on what NATO expansion means for the Russian Navy

A Dual-Use Republic

Pavel Luzin explains why Russia has announced the deployment of its tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus

Satellites of stagnation

Pavel Luzin discusses Russia’s military space programme during wartime

The Russian army in 2023: military districts, money and the military-industrial complex

Pavel Luzin on why the announced plans can hardly be called military reform

The Russian army in 2023

Pavel Luzin on whether the Russian army can be increased to 1.5 million

Inglorious mobilization

Pavel Luzin on why mobilization leads not to replenishment, but to further degradation of the Russian army

The finite army

Pavel Luzin analyses why Russian ground forces are unlikely to return from the war

Half-hearted withdrawal from the International Space Station

Pavel Luzin on what is behind the most recent announcement of Russia’s pull-out from the International Space Station

One-way ticket

Pavel Luzin on why Russia’s military capabilities have suffered irreparable losses after four months of war

Russian civil aircraft manufacturing in 2030

Pavel Luzin on how the war and sanctions are affecting one of the key sectors of Russian mechanical engineering

Nuclear de-escalation option

Pavel Luzin on what it means to put Russia’s deterrence forces on high alert

Military integration of the Union State

Pavel Luzin discusses what underlies the latest Russian-Belarusian military cooperation initiatives

The dynamics of Russia’s defence policy

Pavel Luzin discusses the interconnections between military expenditures, military education, exercises in Belarus and Russia’s political system

Fifth-generation fighter jets

Pavel Luzin on Sukhoi Su-57 and Su-75 ‘Checkmate' fighters in the political and economic context

2021 war alert

Pavel Luzin on why Russia is amassing troops near its western borders

Traitors by designation

Pavel Luzin on the political logic and practice of combating ‘traitors’

Troubleshooting mission

Pavel Luzin on the peculiar political mindset of the Russian elite

Russian diesel-electric submarines: A classic balance of powers

Pavel Luzin on how Moscow’s real capabilities impact its maritime ambitions

Russian astronautics: a fresh start

Pavel Luzin on how to make the space industry prosperous and keep up with the competition

A Russian orbital station: Dreams or plans?

Pavel Luzin on why the Russian orbital station project is about bargaining with the USA

Russia’s cyber army: Goals and contradictions

Pavel Luzin writes on the reasons why Russian intelligence agencies combine systemic and non-systemic activities in cyberspace

Artificial intelligence in the Russian army

Pavel Luzin on the challenges and idiosyncrasies of the development of advanced military command-and-control systems in Russia

Political and corporate complexity on the Northern Sea Route

Pavel Luzin looks at the growing importance of Russia's Northern Sea Route, which is fraught with political and corporate entanglements.

Russia’s military in the 2020s

Pavel Luzin on the challenges the Russian defence industry will face in the 2020s

In search of new partners in space

Pavel Luzin on whether Russia can rely on China and India in the field of space exploration

Sanctions and the Russian defence industry

Pavel Luzin on Moscow’s worries about the Western sanctions

Russia and its chemical weapons: a short history

Pavel Luzin explains why the Russian approach to disarmament of chemical weapons is so controversial

The Russian military and COVID-19

Pavel Luzin on herd immunity to COVID-19 in the Russian Armed Forces

Endless rumbles of Roscosmos reform

Pavel Luzin investigates why Russia's state-run space corporation is changing its structure once again

When Russia abandons its bases

Why has Moscow given up on its radar station in Kazakhstan, and what is the fate of the sites in Belarus, asks Pavel Luzin?

Keeping track of Russia’s Railways

Pavel Luzin explains how keeping track of Russia’s railway plans can deliver insights into the country’s political mechanics

The army versus Putin?

Pavel Luzin looks into the voting habits of Russia’s military and wonders why military personnel were more likely to vote against constitutional amendments than their compatriots

Moscow’s hypersonic missiles

Pavel Luzin on why Russia is banking on hypersonic weapons

Price and prospects of the military space programme

Pavel Luzin on the development trends around the Russian military satellite constellation

Russia’s BattleBots

Pavel Luzin looks at the Russian military's strides toward robotization, and finds a few missteps

Russia’s Atomic Strategy in Africa

Pavel Luzin considers Rosatom’s role in Africa and its influence on Russia’s foreign policy

Russia’s arms manufacturers are a financial black hole

Pavel Luzin examines the most pressing problem facing Russia’s defence industry in 2020s

Russia’s wild space chase after Elon Musk

Pavel Luzin on why the Russian authorities want space start-ups - and why they are all doomed

The technical barriers to Russia’s military triumphs

Pavel Luzin considers why the Russian armed forces end this decade in a place of deep uncertainty

Trouble in the rank and file

Pavel Luzin on why the Russian army has once again become a source of bad news

Schrödinger’s Siloviki and Russia’s Criminal Conundrum

Pavel Luzin writes that Russia’s headline-grabbing “wars” within the security services are nothing of the sort — they are the natural result of a government which violates its own laws

A peace settlement in the Donbas: big talk and small commitments

The Steinmeier Formula is not a reason for optimism, nor for alarmism, writes Pavel Luzin

The Kremlin’s Narrowing Nuclear Options

Pavel Luzin considers why the Kremlin is undermining its own efforts for nuclear weapons control, and  what this mean for the START treaty.

Why corporations are the Kremlin’s best friends

State-owned and state-controlled companies have come to play a crucial role in managing Russia and guaranteeing stability in the regions. But can the Kremlin depend on them alone in the turbulent years ahead?

A Fragmented Fleet

Pavel Luzin discusses the Russian Navy’s limited prospects for the future

The Anti-Air Ambassadors

Why has the S-400 missile system become such an important instrument of Russian diplomacy?

How Russia’s Military Makes Its Own Headlines

Part four of “Russian Media: Moscow and Beyond Calling”: on the place of the military’s press in Russia’s media landscape

Russia’s Rickety Airbridge

Pavel Luzin considers the future role of air transport in Moscow’s military strategy

The Kremlin Has Its Own Plans for Russian Civil Aviation: At Any Price

Here’s why Russia has one of the worst safety records for commercial aviation

Should Russians Be Wary of Chinese Bearing Gifts?

Pavel Luzin considers to what extent China really is a threat to Russia

The Winners and Losers of Russia’s Rearmament Programme

The second part of the series ‘Safety first’: how does rearmament affect the defence industry, and how does the industry affect the Russian authorities?

The Inner Workings of Russia’s Military Industrial Behemoth

Pavel Luzin considers the political and economic factors which make Rostec worth watching

A Farewell to Arms Control

Pavel Luzin explores the realities of Russia's nuclear missile capabilities, and what this means for future arms limitation talks

How the Kremlin Sealed the Deal with Russia’s Private Military Contractors

Pavel Luzin considers the difference between real private military contractors and outsourced cannon fodder

Braced for the Apocalypse

For years, the Russian authorities have entertained the possibility of a major war, and have spent considerable time and resources preparing the underlying infrastructure

2019: What Lies Ahead for the Russian Military

Pavel Luzin on the problems and projects which will occupy the Russian military next year

Scenario 2028: Russia’s Foreign Policy

The year is 2028. The multipolar world has arrived. The Western-led multilateral order has given way to different centers of power and influence, notably the United States, India, Brazil, a more autonomous European Union, and an ever-closer axis of autocracy between Russia and China

Is Belarus in the Kremlin´s Firing Line?

Even though relations are getting prickly between Russia and Belarus, international and domestic conditions would have to change substantially before Russia resorted to force against its western neighbor and long-time ally. But it would still be unwise to rule any such scenario out entirely.

The General Directorate Is Falling From Favour

A string of errors from the General Staff’s Main Office will have major knock-on effects on how intelligence agencies interact with Russia’s political system

Gravitating Toward ‘Failed States’

Explaining Russian policy in Central Africa

Crimea: A Bridgehead or a Barricade?

What Russia’s military spending on the Crimea says about the Kremlin’s strategy on the Black Sea

Russia’s European Army

Why do some military units in Russia now bear the names of European cities?

Where Can the United States and Russia Get Along? How About The Moon ?

Russia’s Tactical Nuclear Weapons: A Reality Check

Beyond inflated official statistics and lofty rhetoric, what are the real capabilities of Russia’s tactical nuclear weapons programme, and how does this square with today’s doctrines of nuclear de-escalation?

Ramzan Kadyrov: Russia’s Top Diplomat

The Kremlin’s foreign policy is becoming increasingly dependent on Chechnya’s brutal dictator

Russia’s GPV-2027 State Arms Programme

In a context of economic stagnation, arms production remains a priority for Moscow. The GPV-2027 spending priorities are a useful indicator of the Kremlin’s long-term political mindset.