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A Harsh Warning from United Russia

Andrey Pertsev sums up the political week (4−8 May)

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Russia’s state news agency TASS, citing a source inside United Russia, has published the party’s internal guidance for its State Duma candidates and campaigners. The booklet is bluntly titled «A Dozen Tough Questions for ‘United Russia’.» It covers price hikes, internet blockages, migration, and the use of administrative resources in elections. United Russia’s General Council Secretary Vladimir Yakushev had already announced that such a manual was in the works. What is new is the party’s decision to release its contents not just for internal use but for public consumption as well.

The questions themselves are genuinely topical and reflect real grievances among ordinary Russians. Party activists are advised to push back against the idea that United Russia is «the party of bans» and to insist that it «has always stood and continues to stand for freedom of speech and expression.» They are told not to openly defend internet restrictions; instead, they should reply that «in wartime it is impossible to do without temporary limits — they have been imposed in every era and in every war.» On administrative leverage, United Russia members are instructed to condemn the practice while noting that it is carried out by individual heads of budget-funded organizations. When accused of driving up prices, they should remind voters about recent wage and pension increases.

The very fact that the ruling party has chosen to publicize its «tough questions» — the ones it itself considers most sensitive for society — is striking. Campaign manuals for candidates and agitators are routine ahead of any major election; every party knows the uncomfortable topics in advance and prepares its spokespeople accordingly. United Russia has produced similar materials during past crises, including the COVID-19 pandemic. The difference this time is that these internal documents were never previously released to the public; journalists had to dig them up themselves.

Publishing the ruling party’s playbook under the guise of «insider information» from a state agency is a genuine oxymoron: one pillar of the power vertical is openly disclosing the operational plans of another. It is obvious that the decision was cleared with both the Kremlin’s information and political blocs — the standard procedure for state media handling issues of special importance to the authorities.

United Russia and its Kremlin curators clearly want to deliver the message about these «tough questions» not only to voters but also to the country’s top leadership. TASS reports are guaranteed to land in the daily monitoring dossiers prepared for Vladimir Putin. The president needs to see that internet blockages really do worry society and directly complicate his party’s campaign. The same applies to the rest of the list. Floating these topics into the public domain via TASS is the same kind of signal as the recent leaks about declining approval ratings for state institutions. The civilian wing of the executive is trying to convey a simple point to the president: society is unhappy and is already prepared to confront representatives of the ruling party with hard questions.

It seems the political managers and the government still hope that, on the eve of the Duma elections, some restrictions can be eased in order to improve the authorities’ ratings. So far, however, neither Putin nor the security bloc has shown any willingness to revisit their decisions. On the contrary, fresh internet restrictions — including the temporary suspension of even the «whitelists» — have already been announced for Victory Day celebrations in Moscow and other major cities.

The country’s top leadership continues to leave society’s «tough questions» unanswered. As a result, the flow of such signals from the civilian wing of the political management is likely to intensify. Alarm bells have now rung simultaneously from pro-Kremlin pollsters and from the very heart of United Russia itself. The louder these signals become, the stronger the sense that a crisis is hanging over the country.

Adjusting the Soothing Formula

United Russia is considering placing Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin in the top five of its party list for the State Duma elections. The party congress that will formally approve the candidates is still more than a month away, but it is already clear that both the ruling party and the Kremlin are ready to revise their original approach to forming the list’s headline group.

The initial outline leaked to loyal media was overtly militarized. According to RBC, the top five was to include party chairman and Security Council deputy chairman Dmitry Medvedev, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, chief doctor of Hospital No. 52 Maryana Lysenko, head of the central Yunarmiya headquarters and Ukraine war participant Vladislav Golovin, and VGTRK war correspondent and media executive Yevgeny Poddubny. Four of the six names (Medvedev, Lavrov, Golovin and Poddubny) represented hardliners, and two (Golovin and Poddubny) had direct frontline connections.

In the version now under discussion, only Poddubny retains a direct link to the war. Sobyanin would replace Golovin. There is also talk of a top five without Sergei Lavrov. Even if Lavrov stays, the line-up looks markedly softer than the original: two civilian administrators (Sobyanin and Lysenko), a tough but non-military figure in Lavrov, hardliner Medvedev, and war correspondent-turned-media manager Poddubny.

Sobyanin has long kept his distance from overt support for the war. City Hall hands out record signing bonuses for military contracts, but it does not build its public brand around them. For most Russians, Moscow remains a city of convenient services, high salaries and sleek urbanism — and many credit Sobyanin personally with that «miracle.» His possible inclusion in the list is an attempt to normalize the composition of United Russia’s top five and to highlight the party’s civilian face. Against the backdrop of growing public fatigue with the war, the move looks entirely predictable and could prove effective.

The new five also acquires a distinctly «Moscow» flavor: Maryana Lysenko is likewise part of the city’s budget-funded healthcare system. This too makes sense. Sobyanin’s ally Vladimir Yakushev, who now serves as United Russia’s General Council Secretary, was handed the Tyumen region by Sobyanin when he moved to federal office. Bringing the mayor onto the list could help members of his clan deliver stronger results.

That said, the more «civilian» version could still be blocked by Vladimir Putin. The president is deeply immersed in the war and consistently promotes the idea of a «new elite.» The political pragmatism guiding United Russia and the Kremlin’s political bloc may run up against Putin’s personal convictions.

Sobyanin also has powerful bureaucratic opponents who could try to keep him off the list. A strong showing by the ruling party could theoretically open the door for him to claim the prime ministership — a post that previous top-of-the-list figures (Sergei Lavrov and Sergei Shoigu) did not seek. Every major elite clan already has its own candidate for the premiership. Finally, Sobyanin himself may not welcome the prospect. Despite his ambitions, he is broadly content with his current post, and by autumn the Moscow mayor’s office — with its still relatively healthy budget, even after recent cuts — may look distinctly preferable to the prime minister’s chair.

Placing Sobyanin on the list would give his rivals a convenient pretext to suggest to Putin that the mayor be moved to the State Duma — naturally, as its speaker. That is exactly what happened to Vyacheslav Volodin in 2016. Sobyanin may simply prefer not to hand his adversaries such a weapon.

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