Vladimir Putin has clarified the conditions for Russia’s use of nuclear weapons, which are laid down in the «Fundamentals of State Policy in the Field of Nuclear Deterrence». Now the army can use nuclear weapons not only in a conflict with nuclear powers, but also in a confrontation with countries that do not possess such weapons. It is enough for these nuclear-armed states to support Russia’s adversaries. Even the massive use of drones could become a reason to use nuclear weapons. Put simply, the Russian authorities are now giving themselves an authorization to use nuclear weapons in any conflict, since every «non-nuclear» country has a nuclear state in its support group and massive drone attacks have become routine in warfare.
On the basis of such «clarifications» Russia can already use nuclear weapons right now. Ukraine is openly supported by the United States, Great Britain and France, all of which possess their own nuclear arsenals. In addition, the Ukrainian Armed Forces make massive and very successful use of drones: recently, it used the drones to destroy a huge warehouse in the Toropets district of the Tver region. Ukrainian drones even reach the Murmansk region, where strategic bombers are based.
Putin’s «clarifications» were a logical continuation of the statements made by political scientist Sergey Karaganov, who in the last two years has often referred to the limited use of tactical nuclear weapons as a reliable means against global nuclear war and the self-destruction of humanity. The Russian president is demonstrating to Western countries that he is willing to heed such advice and is giving himself a stronger mandate to press the red button. It is significant that Putin presents his «clarifications» against the background of the ongoing discussions whether Ukraine will receive permission from the US and EU countries to use the weapons they have supplied against targets on Russian territory. This discussion clearly worries the Russian leader and his entourage: Putin speaks openly about it, and officials interpret his words as a final warning and a direct threat to the «collective West». In reality, the Russian president’s «clarifications» and words make little difference. If Putin, backed by part of his inner circle, wants to use nuclear weapons, he will do so without any additional conditions or rules of his own making. On the eve of the invasion of Ukraine, everyone expected some provocation from the Kremlin that could become a formal reason for the invasion. But nothing of the sort happened: the war was explained with the help of vague «denazification and demilitarization» narratives.
Most likely, various «clarifications,» unambiguous hints, and even direct threats indicate that the Kremlin is trying to avoid extreme steps for the time being. This is also because the leadership of the countries of the «Global South» will clearly not accept or support such a step. This is especially true of China, which has repeatedly made clear its opposition to the use of nuclear weapons.
Yet at the same time, Putin’s threats should not be underestimated. The president and his inner circle frequently and publicly discuss scenarios for the use of nuclear weapons, and their advisers assure them that this could be a blessing, not a curse. At some point, the use of a nuclear bomb or a missile with a nuclear warhead for a strike may appear to the Russian leader as an inevitable event, the advantages of which outweigh the disadvantages. Of course, this will be an expression of Putin’s own rationality, which will have nothing in common with real rationality. But this «Putin’s rationality» has already produced the invasion of Ukraine, so the obsessive discussion of the «nuclear» issue by the president and Russian officials should be seriously alarming.
A new bout of conservatism
Russian MPs — deputies of the State Duma and senators of the Federation Council — decided to ban the «ideology of childlessness». The proposed bill has already appeared in the State Duma’s database. Despite the fact that Putin’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov says that the Kremlin has not yet taken a position on the initiative, there is no doubt that it will be adopted. Among the MPs who have signed the document are the chairpersons of both Chambers, Valentina Matvienko and Vyacheslav Volodin. Politicians of such status could not put their signatures to a non-passable initiative and have certainly coordinated their actions with the presidential administration.
«One of the threats to traditional values is the spread of the ideology of childlessness in Russian society, which leads to the degradation of public institutions, the erosion of traditional values and creates conditions for the depopulation of the country,» the text of the bill reads. The last sentence actually explains its real goals, or rather, the attempts to achieve them. The birth rate in Russia is decreasing and is currently at its historical low, while the death rate continues to grow. The wording of the document is quite vague — it is not very clear what exactly can be labelled «propaganda of childfree lifestyle». In some ways, this ban is similar to the ban on «LGBT propaganda,» but that did not prevent the authorities from discerning traces of «gay propaganda» even in classic works of literature. Representatives of the authorities will monitor the media, social networks and messengers, looking for appeals to renounce the idea of having children. Lawyers have already warned that advertising contraceptives could be considered «propaganda of childfree lifestyle». According to them, the law will affect the film industry, because a realistic portrayal of all the hardships associated with family life with children could theoretically be considered propaganda for childlessness. It is less clear whether the initiative will affect private conversations in public places. «Would a conversation between a husband and wife on the subway, emotionally discussing their unwillingness to procreate due to difficult financial circumstances, be considered propaganda of childfree ideas? Would a woman’s social media account of a difficult childbirth or postpartum depression be considered an expression of such propaganda? Can a forum dedicated to women’s professional careers, where the problems of maternity leave are discussed, be considered a public platform promoting childlessness?» wondered lawyer Ekaterina Tyagai in a commentary for RBC.
At the same time, the real reasons behind the decreasing birth rate — the unstable economic situation, the war and the deaths of men at the front, rising prices, increasing mortgage costs, fear of new mobilizations — are not touched upon by the parliamentary initiative. The authorities cannot and do not want to solve these problems because they contradict their own aspirations. Putin wants to fight the war till the dire end, and to him the population of the country is but a tool for realizing his own geopolitical and historical ambitions. In such a situation, the president’s subordinates — and by «subordinates» we now in fact mean all Russian public officials and MPs — can only propose prohibitive measures that camouflage all the usual talk of «traditional values». Most likely, Putin will appreciate Volodin and Matvienko’s efforts to ban a yet another «harmful Western idea,» but the society that does no see procreation as a good idea given the harsh material circumstances, is unlikely to view this initiative positively. The state has literally begun to openly get into private citizens’ beds and dictate to them how they should proceed with family planning. It is possible that the MPs and senators will go even further and try to introduce a tax on childlessness — this step would be quite predictable and, in a certain sense, logical. Besides, such a tax existed in Soviet times.
The parliamentarians’ idea to ban «childless lifestyle» may have the opposite effect: young and mobile people will think about leaving the country where the authorities have no problem invading their private lives and dictating their own terms for the most intimate decisions people make.
