Vladimir Putin chaired a meeting of the organizing committee for the 80th anniversary of the Victory in World War Two (which in Russia is known as the Great Patriotic War). This is a truly important date. Historically, both in the USSR and post-Soviet Russia, May 9 has been the day to remember the fallen soldiers and civilians and to honor surviving veterans. This holiday has long been imbued with anti-war rhetoric and pacificist ideals. Under Vladimir Putin, Victory Day has increasingly been hijacked by the authorities for propaganda purposes, and anti-Western, militaristic, ultra-patriotic rhetoric was gradually introduced into it. As a result, May 9 has become a de facto main public holiday, and anniversaries were always celebrated with pomp and circumstance, which, among other purposes, was meant to help disseminate pro-Kremlin propaganda. In jubilee years, the celebrations were more extensive than ever (and this is quite understandable and logical), and preparations for them began long before the date itself. Militarist propaganda would also usually intensify during these periods. This year, however, the Kremlin has still not worked out a proper ideological framework for the celebrations. At a meeting of the organizing committee, Vladimir Putin spoke mainly about providing social security for World War II veterans, discussed the awarding of the title «City of Labor Valour» to Russian cities, while Defense Minister Andrey Belousov briefed him on plans for military parades. The conversation was extremely mundane and routine, and there was a sense of understatement. The Kremlin has long compared World War II to the war in Ukraine in order to bolster ultra-patriotic sentiment and public support for a full-scale invasion. In a practice reminiscent of the Soviet era, when the Red Army was expected to capture or recapture cities on important public holidays, such as May 1 or November 7, disregarding the heavy casualties that were almost inevitable in such circumstances, two years ago, «Wagner’s» units were pushed to take the city of Bakhmut by 9 May 2023, predictably suffering heavy casualties. In their public speeches the country’s top leadership compares the participants of Russia’s war against Ukraine to the WWII veterans, and the invasion itself is presented as a continuation of the «fight against Nazism». These allusions will necessarily reemerge again during the V-Day celebrations, but the Kremlin ideologists cannot choose their tone and main motive because they do not know what will happen on the front at that time. If the war is over by May 9, the Kremlin will certainly try to present the outcome of the war as a victory and celebrate it. If there is no peace, but the Russian army continues to advance, Putin and his circle can celebrate the «liberation of Donbass». Theoretically, another situation is also possible: the Russian army might face more problems at the front, and then it will be more reasonable not to draw unnecessary parallels with the war against Ukraine and focus on the anniversary instead.
But the Kremlin is not in control of the situation. The Russian leadership does not know what terms Donald Trump will propose for a peace agreement, or whether Ukraine or Putin will agree to them. Nor does Putin himself seem to know anything about the American president-elect’s plans. That is why the real preparations for the start of the celebrations are being delayed. The Kremlin is hoping that in a month or two everything will be more or less clear and then they will start planning and designing the celebrations. Campaigns on public transport in the Russian regions will not be put up until the beginning of April: unlike billboards, such ads are difficult and expensive to change. This postponement will ultimately mean that public festivities for this important anniversary will be organized at the last minute, and this rush job is almost guaranteed to produce poorly organized events.
Zyuganov goes on the offensive
At the first Duma session of the spring, the Communist party leader Gennady Zyuganov attacked Sergey Kiriyenko, head of the Kremlin’s political bloc, and criticized the work of the presidential administration’s information bloc with Alexey Gromov at the helm, without explicitly naming him. «The question of the political system is the most difficult one and the one that comes with the most responsibility. It is unacceptable to disfigure it! If necessary, let’s invite Kiriyenko back to the Duma. Let’s discuss what is happening with our elections. They cannot be fully valid if the voting process is divided into three or four days and the counting of votes is not really controlled. Citizens demand full-fledged elections, and we are ready to defend this position,» Zyuganov said indignantly. The Communist party leader scolded the information block of the presidential administration for stirring «euphoria about Trump’s victory on TV». It’s been a while since Zyuganov allowed himself such frankness and personal attacks in prime time in the Duma. The most likely reason for his outburst is the agenda of the Communist party congress to be held in July this year. The congress is scheduled to hold elections of the party chairperson and Gennady Zyuganov, despite his age (he is 80), would like to retain the post and lead the Communists into the 2026 Duma elections. The Kremlin’s political bloc would prefer to see another, more pliable figure at the head of the Communist Party, who would get the post through the presidential administration’s mediation, such as Communist party First Deputy Chairman Yury Afonin. Zyuganov, thanks to his direct access to Putin, is a loose cannon and could bring unpleasant surprises to the political bloc. During the last election campaign, the Communist leader put the following people at the top of the list of those who were out of totally unacceptable for the political bloc: Vyacheslav Markhaev, head of the CPRF branch in Buryatia, former Irkutsk governor Sergey Levchenko and now former head of the Moscow City Committee Valery Rashkin. In addition, the political bloc wants to push the CPRF from second to third (or even fourth) place in the election results. At the Liberal-Democratic party’s (LDPR) anniversary congress, Sergey Kiriyenko spoke of the Liberal Democrats’ «second best result after „United Russia“», based on the autumn election results.
Zyuganov is using the Duma podium and publicity to attack Kiriyenko and the information bloc of the presidential administration, to force them to negotiate and to show that he will not tolerate the Kremlin’s actions against him personally and the party he has been heading for decades. Sergey Kiriyenko and Alexei Gromov are unlikely to be able to silence Zyuganov, but they can increase the pressure on the Communist Party. The political bloc could respond to this announcement by provoking internal divisions in the Communist ranks (as the Kremlin has done many times before), and the information bloc could respond with media attacks on the CPRF’s top leadership. In the regional elections, the last before the Duma campaign, the presidential administration will try to ensure that the CPRF loses second place in most regions where deputies are elected (this is particularly important in one of the Communist Party’s main strongholds, Novosibirsk). Zyuganov certainly understands this, but he also knows that the public escalation of conflicts in the context of growing contradictions within influential groups in the country’s leadership often works to the advantage of those who are engaged in this escalation. This was the path taken by Alexander Khinshtein, who, as a State Duma deputy from the Samara region, used public attacks to get the region’s governor, Dmitry Azarov, sacked. Georgy Filimonov, the governor of the Vologda region, is waging a war on Severstal and its founder, Alexey Mordashov, and so far Mordashov has not put up any serious resistance. Gennady Zyuganov has virtually nothing to lose, so he can try various techniques used by the younger figures operating on the political scene. At the very least, the escalatory rhetoric will help Zyuganov to go into a nice retirement as a fighter, if not with Putin, then with the Kremlin, in case the political bloc ousts him from his job as the chairman of the Communist party.
