The closest associate of Sergei Shoigu, Ruslan Tsalikov, has been detained and placed under house arrest. He is accused of creating a criminal community using his official position, as well as numerous episodes of embezzlement, legalization of criminal proceeds, and receiving bribes. In the past, Tsalikov served as deputy minister of emergency situations, then as vice-governor of the Moscow region during the period when Sergei Shoigu headed the region and later became the first deputy minister of defense.
Tsalikov’s arrest came as no surprise. In 2024, law enforcement arrested another of Shoigu’s deputies at the Ministry of Defense — Timur Ivanov. At that time, Sergei Shoigu, despite opposition from the clans of Rosgvardia head Viktor Zolotov and Rostec head Sergei Chemezov, was counting on reappointment. The criminal case against Ivanov destroyed those plans: Shoigu received the honorary but largely stripped of serious financial and infrastructural leverage position of Secretary of the Security Council. Repressions against his team continued: two more deputy ministers — Pavel Popov and Dmitry Bulgakov — came under investigation.
Shoigu attempted to shield Tsalikov, his long-time friend and ally, from the blow. To do this, a scenario was agreed upon with the political bloc of the Presidential Administration under which the ex-official would be elected as a deputy in the parliament of Shoigu’s native region — Tuva. United Russia hurriedly nominated Tsalikov, bypassing the primaries. The plan was for him to spend a short time in the Supreme Khural of Tuva and soon move to the Federation Council, thereby gaining immunity. However, the appointment as senator kept being derailed: the relevant item repeatedly disappeared from the agenda of the legislative assembly sessions, though it would reappear later. Shoigu even personally traveled to his homeland to sort out the situation, but Tsalikov never got the senator’s seat. This failure signaled that serious claims against Tsalikov already existed at that time, and it was clear that sooner or later they would come for him. And so it happened.
Sergei Shoigu himself fell into partial disgrace in 2024. He lost serious financial and administrative resources but retained direct access to the president and his inner circle thanks to the position of Security Council Secretary. Moreover, this post allowed the ex-minister to engage in informal diplomacy in friendly countries. After the failure with Tsalikov’s appointment to the Federation Council, Shoigu nevertheless managed to get his relative into the senatorship from Tuva. And at the beginning of 2026, the politician’s daughter Ksenia Shoigu headed the Fund for the Development of the Innovative Scientific and Technological Center «Mendeleev Valley.» This structure under the Russian government oversees the development of a cluster for rare earth metal extraction in Siberia.
Of course, Sergei Shoigu’s clan has not regained its former level of influence, but it has gradually begun to accumulate new resources. It seemed that the politician’s ill-wishers were satisfied with the dismantling of most of his former team and had lost active interest in the ex-minister himself. However, Tsalikov’s arrest showed that this interest remains. Shoigu’s enemies in the Russian elite, apparently, are prepared to go all the way. All that remains for Tsalikov is to give testimony against his former boss, since most of the ex-Ministry of Defense team is already behind bars. Such a development of events cannot be completely ruled out. The thoroughness with which Sergei Shoigu’s clan is being cleaned out — essentially «root and branch» — vividly demonstrates how sharply the degree of internal conflicts within the power vertical has risen.
It is possible that Shoigu will be offered, in exchange for immunity, to voluntarily leave his post in the Security Council, but such guarantees in Russian practice rarely prove reliable. After the arrest of his closest associate, it will be harder for the Security Council Secretary to seek protection from Vladimir Putin, although again it cannot be ruled out that the president will accommodate an old friend.
The elections to the State Duma could both help Sergei Shoigu at least temporarily avoid further persecution and, on the contrary, complicate his position. The ex-minister of defense is one of the formal founding fathers of United Russia, and in the previous elections he headed the federal list of the party of power. Shoigu remains a figure closely affiliated with UR, and his criminal prosecution could seriously damage the reputation and real ratings of the United Russia members. At the same time, the pro-war segment of Russian society is sharply negative toward Shoigu, and many could perceive his possible arrest positively, which in the end might even help raise the overall ratings of the authorities.
Systemic parties are ready to go
Parliamentary parties are beginning their election campaign. The New People party held its congress in St. Petersburg.
The party, created in 2020 with the support of the AP political bloc, exploits the image of a force that opposes state bans. For example, now New People is running a campaign against the blocking of Telegram, and in the State Duma party representatives speak out against domestic violence. In addition, the party defends small business. At the same time, the «New Ones» clearly do not cross «red lines» and established boundaries. Their criticism of bans usually remains impersonal: they can vote for anti-democratic initiatives (for example, for the abolition of municipalities) or remain silent for a long time on the most painful issues (thus, the party did not immediately respond to the tax increase for small and medium-sized businesses).
In the campaign against the blocking of Telegram, party members are indeed responding to a public demand and, apparently, sincerely share it. However, in parallel with collecting signatures against the blocking, they are collecting signatures for an open letter to the messenger’s creator Pavel Durov calling for him to open a representative office in Russia — which fully coincides with the request of the Russian authorities. In some sense, such tactics can be called workable. The party’s technologists position it as a political force of the «healthy person» — the voice of reason in Russian systemic politics. Against the background of other figures and structures, maintaining this image is not so difficult, and part of the citizens agree with this approach: the New People’s rating fluctuates around 5−7%.
In his programmatic speech at the congress, party leader Alexey Nechayev did not deviate from this tactic. He quoted articles of the Constitution on rights and freedoms, reminded that the party opposes bans. «If it seems to you that this was useless, think: why do platforms get slowed down and not blocked? Why are abortions not banned? Why can students still decide where to work, and not be sent by assignment? Because every madness has a boundary — and someone is holding that boundary,» Nechayev stated.
At the same time, the authors or executors of many bans were present in the hall and spoke from the stage. A greeting from Vladimir Putin was read by the head of the Kremlin’s department for monitoring and analyzing social processes, Alexander Kharichev. His deputy Boris Rapoport, who directly oversees elections including United Russia’s campaign, did not speak but was present in the hall. Naturally, the «new people» held no debates with Kremlin officials.
Symbolically, it was on the day of the congress of the «fighters against bans» that the president of Russia, who congratulated the party, also spoke out in favor of blocking Telegram.
The co-host of the congress was Daria Kislitsyna, director of the department of regional programs at the Kremlin’s Expert Institute for Social Research (EISI). She received a party card and will become a passing candidate for the State Duma from the party. This is unlikely to prevent her from continuing to praise governors in her Telegram channel, most of whom concurrently head regional branches of United Russia.
Thus, New People loudly speak out against bans but gladly welcome their authors and executors to their congress, and Kremlin-working political technologists end up on their party lists. The party is ready to support the presidential administration on the «external» contour as well: representatives of right-populist European parties and even a member of the Chinese Communist Party attended the congress.
However, even such empty declarations look advantageous against the backdrop of the actions of other systemic parties. The LDPR is already actively conducting its campaign. Last week, party leader Leonid Slutsky paid a working visit to Yekaterinburg. What the residents remembered most about his arrival was the elite motorcade of Mercedes, for which traffic was blocked along the route. The liberal democrats are not doing very well yet with positioning the LDPR as a youth party. Sverdlovsk rapper GSPD (David Dekunov) asked Slutsky a question about the blocking of tracks under anti-drug legislation — even works where drugs are mentioned in a negative light fall under censorship. The LDPR head remained silent in response. At the same time, from Alexey Nechayev or Vladislav Davankov, the rapper would most likely have heard words of support and an angry tirade against bans.
